By James Doyle FRAeS · 2 November 2026
Ryanair expects its fuel bill for the year to March 2028 to be about €2bn higher than this year, at current forward prices. Only 25% of that year’s jet fuel is bought at a fixed price, against 80% this year. Ryanair says higher fares are unlikely to cover the full increase. It enters that year with €2.0bn of net cash, no bonds and 620 of its 621 Boeing 737s owned without loans.
Ryanair Holdings plc is listed on Euronext Dublin (RYA) and on Nasdaq (RYAAY).
What did Ryanair report for the first half?
Ryanair’s financial year runs from April to March. In the six months to 30 September 2026 profit after tax fell 15% to €2.15bn, from €2.54bn. Passengers rose 6% to 125.8m and planes were 95% full, but the average fare fell 4% to €55.70. Revenue grew 3% to €10.08bn while operating costs rose 10% to €7.69bn. Fuel and oil was the largest item at €3.40bn, up 15%.
How is Ryanair’s fuel hedged?
Hedging here means agreeing today the price of fuel to be bought later, so a price rise does not hit the airline straight away. Ryanair’s hedges are on jet fuel, priced in US dollars.
For this year (April 2026 to March 2027), 80% of its jet fuel is fixed at about $67 a barrel, or $668 a tonne. The remaining 20% is bought at market prices, and that share doubled in price to about $130 a barrel in the first half. That is the main reason unit costs, the cost of flying each passenger, rose 5%.
For next year (April 2027 to March 2028), only 25% is fixed, at about $95 a barrel ($954 a tonne), as at 30 September. The rest will be bought at market prices. Ryanair puts the resulting increase at about €2bn.
How strong is Ryanair’s balance sheet?
Ryanair repaid its final €1.2bn Eurobond, a bond sold to investors, in May 2026, so it has no bonds outstanding. It repaid €1.3bn of debt in the half year. At 30 September it held €2.6bn of gross cash and €2.0bn of net cash, meaning cash left after subtracting what it owes.
It still has €438.4m of long-term debt, mostly a drawing on its €1.1bn bank credit line, and €142.0m of lease liabilities. 620 of its 621 Boeing 737s are unencumbered: owned with no loan secured on them. Its credit rating is BBB+, which is investment grade.
On the same day as the fuel warning, Ryanair declared an interim dividend of €0.273 a share and announced an €800m share buyback from late February 2027.
How does Ryanair plan to meet the higher fuel cost?
Ryanair says it will press airports harder on charges, seek labour agreements “which may require temporary pay freezes” (Ryanair’s words), lower crewing ratios and use more AI in operations and the back office.
Ryanair says its hedging has widened its cost advantage over other European airlines. The half-year release gives no figures for rivals’ costs, so we make no comparison here.
What do we expect Ryanair to do next?
Our view is that Ryanair will use its balance sheet to take market share next year while weaker airlines cut flights. With €2.0bn of net cash and almost no loans on its aircraft, it can absorb a €2bn fuel rise without borrowing. We expect it to place its limited new capacity at airports and in countries that cut fees and taxes, and to keep the dividend and buyback running.
The case against us is plain. Ryanair itself says fares are unlikely to cover the full €2bn, so next year’s profit falls unless savings elsewhere make up the difference. With only 25% of next year’s fuel fixed, any rival that hedged more would have cheaper fuel. Pay freezes carry a risk of strikes that would cost more than they save.
Boston Warwick’s research tracks airline credit and aircraft finance. To weigh exposure to a carrier, commission our aircraft and lease due diligence, or contact Boston Warwick to discuss a specific airline.
FAQ
How much more will Ryanair pay for fuel next year? About €2bn more in the year to March 2028, based on forward prices at the time of the 2 November 2026 results.
What does fuel hedging mean? Fixing today the price of fuel to be bought later, which protects the airline against price rises but also stops it gaining from price falls.
How much of its fuel has Ryanair hedged? 80% of this year’s jet fuel at about $67 a barrel and 25% of next year’s at about $95 a barrel.
Does Ryanair have any debt? It has no bonds left, but it owes €438.4m of long-term debt, mostly bank borrowing, and holds €2.0bn of net cash.
Does Ryanair own its fleet? 620 of its 621 Boeing 737s carry no loans. The 26 Airbus A320s flown by its Lauda subsidiary are separate.