MRO demand for engines and airframes is holding up into 2027, even though new-aircraft deliveries are recovering. Aviation Week’s 2027 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast, released this month, sees 1,860 deliveries in 2027, more than the 1,792 delivered in 2018, yet older aircraft are leaving fleets more slowly than the engine makers expected. For maintenance providers and lessors, the busy period lasts longer than the headlines about an aftermarket slowdown suggest.
The forecast, reported by Aviation Week’s Sean Broderick on 26 October 2026, opens with a blunt view: “The commercial aftermarket boom is coming to an end.” More new aircraft mean airlines can replace and grow fleets without stretching the lives of older aircraft and engines. High fuel prices are also making some routes unprofitable, and airlines are trimming capacity in response.
How many aircraft will be delivered and retired?
Aviation Week expects 1,860 new-aircraft deliveries in 2027. The comparison with 2018 matters because it was the last full year in which neither Airbus nor Boeing was held back by supply-chain or internal quality problems. Aviation Week’s release on 22 October says deliveries should peak at more than 2,200 a year later in the decade, with more than 21,600 deliveries over the forecast period and 74 per cent of them narrowbodies.
Retirements are rising, but slowly. The forecast sees about 600 retirements in 2026 and an average of 942 a year through 2035. The peak retirement year is now 2031, and it has been sliding later in recent years as older aircraft have stayed in service. Brian Kough, Aviation Week’s senior director of forecasts, says at least 2,000 older aircraft are still flying that would normally have been retired.
Airline plans show the replacement cycle starting. Southwest Airlines is on track to take 67 aircraft this year and retire 60. United Airlines plans to take more than 100 narrowbodies and around 25 widebodies in 2027.
| Measure | Aircraft |
|---|---|
| Deliveries 2018 (actual) | 1,792 |
| Deliveries 2027 (forecast) | 1,860 |
| Retirements 2026 (forecast) | about 600 |
| Retirements, yearly average to 2035 (forecast) | 942 |
Why MRO demand stays strong in the near term
The engine makers are seeing fewer retirements than they planned for. “At the beginning of the year we said we expected CFM56 retirements to be 2% to 3%,” GE Aerospace chief financial officer Rahul Ghai said on the company’s 20 October earnings call. “Now we are expecting somewhere between 1.5 to 2 points of CFM56 retirements.” Aviation Week counts 221 CFM56-powered aircraft retirements in 2026 as of 20 October, about 1.9 per cent of the fleet.
Safran, GE’s partner in CFM International, gave the same reading three days later. “The good news is that it’s still going to be low this year,” chief executive Olivier Andriès said on 23 October. “We forecast that this rate is going to increase smoothly year after year.” He added that airlines are reluctant to reduce capacity.
| Measure | Low (% of CFM56 fleet) | High (% of CFM56 fleet) |
|---|---|---|
| GE expectation, start of 2026 | 2.0 | 3.0 |
| GE expectation, 20 Oct 2026 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Aviation Week count to 20 Oct (221 retirements) | 1.9 | 1.9 |
Widebody engines are also busy. Ghai pointed to shop visit volumes and large workscopes on the GE90 and, increasingly, the GEnx fleets. Outside engines, RTX’s Collins Aerospace reported a 9 per cent rise in commercial aftermarket sales in the third quarter, led by an 18 per cent rise in upgrades and modifications.
Where MRO providers are adding engine capacity
Shops are still investing. On 23 October Lufthansa Technik said it will expand its engine facility at Tulsa International Airport, Oklahoma, US (TUL/KTUL) from 28 to 46 work bays for CFM56, IAE V2500 and Pratt & Whitney GTF engines, with a module shop and 100 extra jobs by 2030. It is part of a €2 billion investment programme that also includes a new engine facility in Calgary, Canada.
CFM said in July that GE Aerospace has committed more than $1 billion and Safran Aircraft Engines more than €1 billion over five years to LEAP maintenance capacity. CFM has added three Premier MRO shops in 18 months, including MTU Maintenance Fort Worth, Texas, which opened on 8 July 2026.
What slower aftermarket growth means for lessors and MROs
The long-term picture is slower. Aviation Week forecasts global MRO demand of $1.77 trillion over the decade, a compound annual growth rate of 3.6 per cent before inflation. Engine maintenance makes up $928.9 billion of that, from more than 100,000 overhaul events and nearly 59,000 life-limited-parts replacement events. Western Europe is expected to overtake North America in annual MRO demand during the forecast period.
Wall Street is split on timing. Melius Research analyst Scott Mikus wrote in mid-September that “a replacement cycle is underway”, which is bad news for aftermarket companies that earn most of their profit from parts and services. RBC Capital Markets analyst Ken Herbert wrote in early October that MROs “appear to be increasingly bullish about the outlook for next year”, against investor sentiment.
In Boston Warwick’s view, both are right on different timescales. For the next two years, CFM56 and V2500 shop visits and green-time engines keep their value, which supports lease rates and maintenance reserves on older narrowbodies. The risk comes later in the decade. Aviation Week warns that as retirements rise, green-time components and used serviceable material could saturate engine markets in the second half of the decade, which would challenge legacy engine parts suppliers. Lessors holding mid-life CFM56 aircraft should plan exit and part-out timing now rather than after 2030. Airlines that trim capacity because of high jet fuel prices may park aircraft rather than retire them, which keeps the timing uncertain.
Frequently asked questions
How many aircraft will be delivered in 2027? Aviation Week’s 2027 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast sees 1,860 new commercial aircraft deliveries in 2027, more than the 1,792 delivered in 2018.
How many aircraft will be retired? Aviation Week expects about 600 retirements in 2026 and an average of 942 a year through 2035. It now sees 2031 as the peak retirement year.
Is MRO demand falling? Not in the near term. GE Aerospace and Safran both said in October 2026 that CFM56 retirements are running lower than expected. Aviation Week forecasts MRO demand growth of 3.6 per cent a year over the next decade, before inflation.
How much is the engine maintenance market worth? Aviation Week puts engine maintenance demand at $928.9 billion over its forecast decade, from more than 100,000 overhaul events and nearly 59,000 life-limited-parts replacement events.
Talk to Boston Warwick
Boston Warwick advises lessors, investors and airlines on aircraft and engine transactions. If you are pricing mid-life CFM56 or V2500 assets, planning maintenance reserves or weighing a part-out, our due diligence work covers maintenance condition and residual values. For how court action affects lease portfolios, see our VietJet asset freeze analysis. Contact us to arrange a call.
Sources
- Aviation Week, Sean Broderick, “MRO Outlook: Don’t Shut Off Those Shop-Floor Lights Just Yet”, 26 October 2026
- Aviation Week via EIN Presswire, “2027 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast Now Available from Aviation Week”, 22 October 2026
- Aviation Week, Alex Derber, “Lufthansa Technik Adding Engine Capacity, Module Capability In Tulsa”, 23 October 2026
- CFM International, “CFM expands, strengthens open MRO ecosystem”, 18 July 2026