Birmingham Airport in the UK (IATA: BHX, ICAO: EGBB) plans to more than double its passenger numbers without building a second runway. Its draft master plan, published on 8 October 2026, sets out more than £2bn of investment over 15 years to take the airport from a record 13.7 million passengers in 2025 to about 30 million a year by 2041.

What the airport is proposing

The numbers come from the draft plan itself. Aircraft movements, meaning take-offs and landings, are forecast to rise from just under 100,000 in 2025 to about 180,000 by 2041. That still sits inside the 205,400 movements the airport was allowed under its 2009 planning permission, so the runway has room for the extra flights. Most of the work is in the terminal and on the aircraft stands.

The terminal would need to grow by about 60 per cent, and the number of aircraft parking stands would rise from 42 today to between 70 and 75. Peak-hour departing passengers are forecast to go from about 3,000 to 5,500. The first phase, covering baggage halls, extra stands, terminal work and road and rail access, could start in 2027, according to the airport’s announcement and the BBC’s report of 8 October.

All of these figures are forecasts. The plan is out for consultation and each project would still need its own planning approval. The airport says the final version will be published in early 2027 after consultation closes on 4 December 2026.

Where the extra passengers come from

The airport expects the growth to come from two places. The first is winning back Midlands travellers who drive to airports in the south of England. Birmingham estimates it serves about 35 per cent of the Midlands air travel market today and wants about 45 per cent by 2041.

The second is long haul. The draft plan forecasts long-haul traffic to treble over the 15 years, through more Middle East and South Asia services, the return of scheduled transatlantic flights and possible new routes to the Far East. The airport expects the average number of passengers on each flight to rise by about 20 per cent, mostly because airlines will use larger aircraft. On those numbers, 180,000 movements would carry about 30 million passengers.

London’s main airports are short of slots, the times an airline is allowed to take off or land, so an airline wanting to add UK flights often can’t get them at London Heathrow (LHR/EGLL) or London Gatwick (LGW/EGKK). Birmingham has spare runway time and is asking airlines to serve Midlands passengers who currently travel south to fly.

The tax condition

Nick Barton, the airport’s chief executive, said on the record on 8 October that delivery “is reliant on a fair and stable taxation environment” and that without better tax and regulatory conditions the investment “may not materialise”. The airport’s statement says its business rates bill has already doubled, amid continuing uncertainty over how English airports are valued for rates.

Barton’s comments were aimed at the airport’s shareholders and at the Treasury. Airport projects are planned over 15 years or more, and the airport is saying it can’t yet show the investment will pay back. The Transport Secretary, Heidi Alexander, welcomed the plan in the same announcement, but her statement made no commitment on tax.

What to watch

For investors in UK regional airports, the useful signal is whether Birmingham’s first-phase spending is confirmed in 2027 or held back pending government decisions on business rates and passenger taxes. For airlines and aircraft lessors, the long-haul forecast is the part to test. Trebling long-haul traffic from a regional base needs carriers willing to commit widebody aircraft to the Midlands, and none has been named. Boston Warwick will follow which airlines respond during the consultation, since the 30 million forecast depends on airlines adding routes.

Sources